Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
December 4, 2023

The dollar has started the week on a strong footing, gaining against all G10 currencies and most major currencies. The dollar’s G10 gains are bookended with +1.20% vs. NOK and +0.03% vs. JPY. Other notable gains: +0.63% vs. GBP, +0.61% vs. AUD, and +0.49% vs. EUR.

The dollar’s performance is aligned with U.S. Treasury yields which have also moved higher today. Yields are higher in all tenors with the middle curve dates rising the most: 2yr +0.93%, 3yr +0.96%, 4yr +0.92%, 5yr +0.09%, and 10yr +0.075%. Fed Funds Futures imply an 81% probability of a 25 basis-point cut at the FOMC’s September meeting, and the Overnight Rate 4.4% by then (down from the current 5.335% implied rate).

Bitcoin is making a move today, +7.22% at $41,593 (+10.19% over 4 days), its highest mark since April of 2022 and is +151.48% this year.

Economic data this week is dominated Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls for November. Recall that it was last month’s Nonfarm payrolls surprise decline (150k vs. 180k estimate) that sparked November’s dollar selloff. Traders, wary of a repeat, may set the tone for a weaker dollar leading up to Friday’s data.

The Bank of Canada will announce its latest Rate Decision on Wednesday, the expectation for no change at 5%.

Gold spiked to $2,135.39 overnight (a 3.11% increase over Friday’s close), its highest price ever. It has since retraced and is now -1.25% for the day but still positive for the month.

Economic Calendar

EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
AUD - MI Inflation Gauge m/m
USD - Factory Orders m/m
AUD - ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
AUD - Company Operating Profits q/q
EUR - German Trade Balance
CHF - CPI m/m
EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change
EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence
GBP - MPC Member Dhingra Speaks
JPY - Tokyo Core CPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 147.113 146.22
eur/usd 1.0895 1.08196
gbp/usd 1.27242 1.26112
aud/usd 0.66904 0.66218
usd/cad 1.35619 1.34795
eur/gbp 0.85853 0.85465
usd/mxn 17.3256 17.1261
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4562.39
NASDAQ 15850.1
DOW 36064.4
GOLD 2047.1
SILVER 24.96

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.