Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
October 30, 2023

The FOMC starts its 2-day policy meeting tomorrow and will announce its rate policy decision on Wednesday at 2pm ET. Fed Funds Futures are implying 0% probability of any rate adjustment at this week’s meeting and low probability (23%) of a hike at the December meeting. Even though Wednesday’s outcome appears to be a foregone conclusion, markets will likely trade in traditional narrow pre-announcement ranges.

The dollar is lower vs. most of its G10 peers, the widest losses against the AUD (-0.57%) and NOK (-0.53%). The dollar is also lower against emerging market pairs: -0.69% vs. BRL and -0.55% vs. MXN, continuing the shift to more risky assets started late last week.

Treasury prices are lower in all tenors (lifting yields), the biggest declines centered in the near dates, and the 3-year price leading the way lower -0.066%. The benchmark 10-year yield is currently 4.90%, mid-way between its 4.80% – 5.00% two-week range.

Most global equity indexes are higher today. The S&P 500 is +0.76%, lifting it out of correction territory (defined as a 10% decline from its most recent peak). The Nasdaq 100 Index is leading all indexes with a 1.53% gain.

Gold has had a bullish month, gaining +8.09% at $1,997.89 after closing Friday at $2,005.78/oz.

Economic Calendar

CAD - BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
AUD - Retail Sales m/m
EUR - German Prelim CPI m/m
CHF - KOF Economic Barometer
EUR - Spanish Flash CPI y/y
EUR - German Prelim GDP q/q
GBP - M4 Money Supply m/m
GBP - Mortgage Approvals
GBP - Net Lending to Individuals m/m
NZD - Building Consents m/m
JPY - Unemployment Rate
JPY - Prelim Industrial Production m/m
JPY - Retail Sales y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 149.853 149.282
eur/usd 0.94809 0.94205
gbp/usd 0.8271 0.82282
aud/usd 1.57911 1.56772
usd/cad 1.38728 1.38259
eur/gbp 0.87378 0.86962
usd/mxn 18.1254 18.0067
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4146.88
NASDAQ 14280.9
DOW 32629.2
GOLD 2001.86
SILVER 23.56

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.