Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
October 19, 2023

The dollars’ performance overnight is an even mix of small gains and losses vs. the G10, book-ended by a 0.41% gain vs. NZD and -0.35% vs. EUR. Widening the view to include performance against all the majors, the dollar’s gains are concentrated in the emerging market pairs: +0.57% vs. KRW, +0.42% vs. ZAR, +0.22% vs. MXN, +0.11% vs. TWD, and +0.03% vs. BRL. The dollar’s widest gain for the week (among majors) is vs. Mexico’s peso, +1.08%.

The dollar index is -0.22% at 106.331, mid-way between the recent low of 105.535 (Oct 12th) and 107.348 high (Oct 3rd).

Jobless Claims for the week ending Oct 14th were 198k, below the 210k estimate and the lowest reading since the week of January 27th. A stubbornly strong labor market, combined with resilient consumer spending (Retail Sales data reported earlier this week was more than double Wall Street’s survey estimate) keeps the pressure on the Fed to continue raising rates.

The expectation of higher borrowing rates is pressuring treasury prices, lifting yields to multi-decade highs. The benchmark 10-year yield is 4.937%, on the threshold of resistance at 5% last traded in June of 2007. All tenors are trading at multi-year highs, and the curve remains inverted (where yields on short-term tenors are higher than the longer-term tenors).

European equities are lower for the day with the FTSE 100 taking the brunt of the selling, -1.011%. U.S. equity indexes are set to open higher, Nasdaq futures leading the way +0.488%.

Oil prices are -1.06% at $87.38/barrel but remain within October’s high/low range. Gold continues to be bid, +0.23% today and is +7.25% from October 5th close at $1,820.01.

Fed Chairman Powell speaks today at noon EST at the Economic Club of New York.

Economic Calendar

USD - Unemployment Claims
USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
USD - Existing Home Sales
AUD - Employment Change
AUD - Unemployment Rate
AUD - NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
CNY - New Home Prices m/m
USD - FOMC Member Harker Speaks
AUD - RBA Annual Report
CHF - Trade Balance
EUR - Current Account
EUR - Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
CAD - IPPI m/m
CAD - RMPI m/m
USD - FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks
USD - CB Leading Index m/m
USD - Natural Gas Storage
USD - FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Barr Speaks
USD - Federal Budget Balance
NZD - Trade Balance
USD - FOMC Member Logan Speaks
GBP - GfK Consumer Confidence
JPY - National Core CPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 149.879 149.667
eur/usd 1.05796 1.05279
gbp/usd 1.21493 1.209
aud/usd 0.63369 0.62958
usd/cad 1.37406 1.37091
eur/gbp 0.87175 0.86774
usd/mxn 18.3956 18.2378
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4326.11
NASDAQ 14994.3
DOW 33689.2
GOLD 1952.38
SILVER 22.85

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.