Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
October 26, 2023

Third quarter GDP was 4.9%, beating the 4.5% estimate and more than double the previous quarter’s 2.1%. This is GDP’s first quarterly increase following three consecutive declines and is the highest mark since Q4 of 2021. The GDP Price Index was +3.5% vs. +2.7% estimate. And Durable Goods Orders for September were +4.7%, estimate +1.9%. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending Oct. 21st were 210k, 207k estimate.

U.S. Treasury prices surged following the strong data and are higher for the day in all tenors, the biggest increases seen in the mid-curve. Today’s economic reports must have the Fed wondering what it must do to get through to consumers who appear undeterred by higher borrowing costs or inflation.

The dollar weakened after the data release but remains net positive in the major pairings for the day. The U.S. Dollar Index is +0.10% at 106.61, its 3rd consecutive daily gain.

Dollar gains are widest vs. commodity currencies tied to oil production: +0.42% vs. NOK, +0.35% vs. SEK. The dollar’s biggest declines are -0.58% vs. ZAR, -0.28% vs. NZD, -0.16% vs. AUD, and -0.15% vs. MXN.

Oil prices are -2.33% and trading at $83.32/barrel, lowest since October 13th.

Economic Calendar

USD - Advance GDP q/q
AUD - Import Prices q/q
USD - Unemployment Claims
EUR - Spanish Unemployment Rate
USD - Advance GDP Price Index q/q
GBP - CBI Realized Sales
USD - Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
USD - Durable Goods Orders m/m
EUR - Main Refinancing Rate
EUR - Monetary Policy Statement
USD - Goods Trade Balance
EUR - ECB Press Conference
USD - FOMC Member Waller Speaks
USD - Pending Home Sales m/m
JPY - Tokyo Core CPI y/y
USD - Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m
USD - Natural Gas Storage
GBP - MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 150.777 149.833
eur/usd 1.05692 1.05212
gbp/usd 1.21266 1.20696
aud/usd 0.63226 0.62701
usd/cad 1.38256 1.37895
eur/gbp 0.87343 0.87059
usd/mxn 18.4238 18.2564
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4179.38
NASDAQ 14338.8
DOW 33033.6
GOLD 1976.21

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.