Third quarter GDP was 4.9%, beating the 4.5% estimate and more than double the previous quarter’s 2.1%. This is GDP’s first quarterly increase following three consecutive declines and is the highest mark since Q4 of 2021. The GDP Price Index was +3.5% vs. +2.7% estimate. And Durable Goods Orders for September were +4.7%, estimate +1.9%. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending Oct. 21st were 210k, 207k estimate.
U.S. Treasury prices surged following the strong data and are higher for the day in all tenors, the biggest increases seen in the mid-curve. Today’s economic reports must have the Fed wondering what it must do to get through to consumers who appear undeterred by higher borrowing costs or inflation.
The dollar weakened after the data release but remains net positive in the major pairings for the day. The U.S. Dollar Index is +0.10% at 106.61, its 3rd consecutive daily gain.
Dollar gains are widest vs. commodity currencies tied to oil production: +0.42% vs. NOK, +0.35% vs. SEK. The dollar’s biggest declines are -0.58% vs. ZAR, -0.28% vs. NZD, -0.16% vs. AUD, and -0.15% vs. MXN.
Oil prices are -2.33% and trading at $83.32/barrel, lowest since October 13th.