Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
December 12, 2023

November Consumer Prices (reported today) were in line with expectations: CPI YoY +3.1% (3.1% est.); CPI MoM +0.1% (0.0% est.); Core CPI YoY +4.0% (+4.0% est.); and Core CPI MoM +0.3% (+0.3% est.).

No inflation-era lows were achieved in any of the CPI categories which will keep the Fed on script and focused on its 2% long-term inflation goal in tomorrow’s FOMC policy statement. The upside is that the CPI measures of inflation are steady near recent lows, similar to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls reported Friday at 199k, 10k above the estimate but within long-term ranges. Trader and market impatience aside, the recent data suggests the Fed is piloting the economy into a soft landing.

The dollar is mixed in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies but leaning towards dollar weakness. The dollar index is -0.28% at 103.808, midway between its recent 104.25 high and 103.50 low.

U.S. Treasury yields have ticked higher today in all tenors, with the 2-year yield gaining the most +0.025%.

Global equities are a mix of small gains and losses, consistent with other markets, with traders sidelined by the start of the FOMC’s 2-day policy meeting today. No change is expected to the current 5.50% target rate in tomorrow’s rate announcement.

Economic Calendar

USD - Core CPI m/m
AUD - NAB Business Confidence
USD - CPI m/m
USD - CPI y/y
EUR - German WPI m/m
GBP - Claimant Count Change
GBP - Average Earnings Index 3m/y
GBP - Unemployment Rate
EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment
EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment
USD - NFIB Small Business Index
USD - 30-y Bond Auction
USD - Federal Budget Balance
NZD - Current Account
NZD - FPI m/m
JPY - Tankan Manufacturing Index
JPY - Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 146.121 144.721
eur/usd 1.08278 1.07611
gbp/usd 1.26151 1.25142
aud/usd 0.66122 0.65399
usd/cad 1.36166 1.35443
eur/gbp 0.86085 0.85575
usd/mxn 17.4386 17.2921
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4628.01
NASDAQ 16283.9
DOW 36486.7
GOLD 1982.07
SILVER 22.78

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.