The dollar is higher today against the G10 pairs, rebounding from three consecutive daily losses. The U.S. dollar index is +0.42%, trading at 105.65. Significant resistance between 106.50 and 107.25 will prevent (or at least slow) the dollar’s advance, with bears viewing dollar gains as an opportunity to short the U.S. unit at more favorable levels.
The dollar’s primary gains today are +1.16% vs. AUD, +0.75% vs. NZD, +0.42% vs. EUR, and +0.37% vs. GBP & CAD.
At 1.0688 the EUR/USD has now reversed 50% of its Nonfarm Payrolls rally from Friday. The GBP/USD is in a similar position, having given back more than 50% of its payrolls rally to 1.2428. Both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD monthly charts show what could be the beginning of a reversal pattern, suggesting dollar weakness on the horizon.
U.S. Treasury yields are lower in the 4yr-30yr tenors with the biggest declines in the far dates. Fed Funds Futures currently imply a 45% probability of a 25 basis-point cut at the FOMC’s May 2024 meeting and a 54% chance of a 25bp rate cut at the June 2024 meeting.
Gold prices are -0.61% today, trading at $1,965.89/oz, and -2.16% from its Oct 27 high ($2,009.29). Silver is -1.79% at $22.60/oz.
Equity indexes are a mix of minor gains and losses in listless trading.