Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
September 19, 2023

The U.S. Dollar Index is -0.33% today and -0.44% for the week, jeopardizing the dollar’s run of nine consecutive weekly gains. Today’s dollar losses are the heaviest vs. the commodity currencies which are strengthening in unison with higher oil prices.

Today’s primary gains vs. the USD: NOK +0.67%, CAD +0.66%, AUD +0.50%, NZD +0.41%, SEK +0.38%, MXN +0.29%.

WTI Crude prices are +1.53% overnight and reached $93.01/barrel today, a 10-month high. Production cuts and higher demand over the last 4 months have lifted oil from $63.64/barrel, traded on May 4th, a 46% increase. Gasoline futures are +0.75% today and are now +10.38% YTD.

The FOMC starts its 2-day policy meeting today and culminates with tomorrow’s rate announcement at 2pm ET. Fed Funds futures are implying nearly a 0% probability (0.08%) of a rate hike tomorrow. The Fed has signaled its intention to allow time for the current 5.50% target rate to register its impact on inflation, so markets are looking now to November and December for additional rate hikes. Recent higher oil prices are an inconvenient development for the Fed, possibly jeopardizing the long-awaited ‘soft landing’ and will likely be a primary topic on today’s agenda.

U.S. Treasury yields are higher today in all tenors with the biggest gains centered around the 7-year +0.043. Yield on the benchmark 10-year is at 4.346%, very near the recent August high of 4.36%. A monthly close above 4.109% will mark the highest close in this tenor since 2007.

Economic Calendar

CAD - CPI m/m
AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
CAD - Median CPI y/y
CHF - Trade Balance
CAD - Trimmed CPI y/y
CAD - Common CPI y/y
EUR - Current Account
USD - Building Permits
USD - Housing Starts
EUR - Final Core CPI y/y
EUR - Final CPI y/y
GBP - 30-y Bond Auction
CAD - Core CPI m/m
NZD - GDT Price Index
CAD - Gov Council Member Kozicki Speaks
NZD - Current Account
JPY - Trade Balance

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 147.892 147.506
eur/usd 1.07179 1.06751
gbp/usd 1.24249 1.23696
aud/usd 0.64738 0.64275
usd/cad 1.34883 1.33728
eur/gbp 0.86364 0.86217
usd/mxn 17.1423 17.0695
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4447.78
NASDAQ 15183.1
DOW 34577.8
GOLD 1934.63
SILVER 23.27

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.