Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
August 11, 2023

Yesterday’s US CPI report was broadly in line with expectations, with the monthly core (excluding food and energy) coming in unchanged at 0.2% for July, the smallest consecutive monthly increase in two years. The steady wave of disinflation witnessed in recent months has increased the odds of a pause from the Federal Reserve when they meet next month. The central bank last paused in June but estimated that two further increases were required – the first came last month, and the jury is out on whether they will deliver a further increase this year. Officials remain divided, with Governor Michelle Bowman earlier this week reiterating her view that the Fed may need to increase further to restore price stability, whilst Philly Fed’s Patrick Harker said that policymakers may be able to hold steady. After the data was released, both yields and the US dollar slipped whilst equities surged, but the price action faded later in the day. The attention now shifts to this afternoon’s PPI report, which is expected to drift higher.

Markets received a pleasant Friday morning surprise earlier, with data released showing that the UK economy delivered its strongest quarterly growth in more than a year. GDP rose 0.2% from the first quarter, the largest increase since Q1 2022, and a significant improvement on the 0.1% gain that markets had predicted, with the UK economy expanding 0.5% in June. Manufacturing and construction output were both stronger than expected in June and consumer spending during the quarter rose 0.7%, the biggest quarterly increase in more than a year. The data comes ahead of the key CPI and employment report next week.

Have a great weekend.

Economic Calendar

JPY - Bank Holiday
GBP - Index of Services 3m/3m
GBP - Industrial Production m/m
GBP - Manufacturing Production m/m
GBP - Goods Trade Balance
GBP - Construction Output m/m
GBP - GDP m/m
GBP - Prelim GDP q/q
GBP - Prelim Business Investment q/q
EUR - French Final CPI m/m
EUR - Italian Trade Balance
CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y
CNY - New Loans
USD - Core PPI m/m
USD - PPI m/m
GBP - NIESR GDP Estimate
USD - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.86689 0.86479
gbp/usd 0.78948 0.78661
gbp/aud 1.95001 1.94168
gbp/nzd 2.11484 2.10605
usd/jpy 144.895 144.628
eur/usd 0.91075 0.90922
gbp/jpy 184.024 183.442
eur/cnh 7.96166 7.9467
usd/cnh 7.24521 7.23134
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 13737.98
DOW 35176.15
S&P 500 4472.65
WTI 82.79
GOLD 1916.97

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.