Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
August 4, 2023

The greenback is set to trim a 4-day gain as US 10-year yields edge lower ahead of the US non-farm payroll data, but still headed for its third weekly gain. USD/JPY consolidates mid 142-143 and AUD/USD starts to move back to 0.66 as the Reserve Bank of Australia indicated that inflation could stay higher for longer. GBP/USD advances this morning and trades above 1.27.

The Bank of England raised interest rates by another quarter point on their 3rd of August meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee raised the benchmark rate to 5.25%, in line with consensus, and the vote split was 2-6-1, with Catherine Mann and Jonathan Haskel suggesting a 50bps rate hike, and Swati Dhingra opting for no increase. The decision to downshift the pace of the tightening campaign comes in line with the small improvement in inflation in June, but also leaves the message that there is still some work to do around monetary policy before the central bank comfortably decides to pause.

It is jobs day in the US, and it can create some turbulence in US Treasuries. Non-Farm Payrolls are estimated at 200,000 in July, moderating slightly, and the rise in average earnings is also expected to slow down to 4.2% YoY. A strong report above estimates can build up bets that the Fed will continue to tighten credit conditions, with rates potentially peaking at 6%.

Economic Calendar

USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD - Unemployment Rate
USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
CAD - Employment Change
CAD - Unemployment Rate

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.86367 0.85995
gbp/usd 1.27611 1.27174
gbp/aud 1.94073 1.93318
gbp/nzd 2.09388 2.08435
usd/jpy 142.295 141.513
eur/usd 1.10148 1.09798
gbp/jpy 181.221 180.174
eur/cnh 7.9212 7.90078
usd/cnh 7.20473 7.18015
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 15363.8
DOW 35180.7
S&P 500 4499.07
WTI 82.74
GOLD 1937.75

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.