Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
July 20, 2023

Sterling was the biggest G10 faller yesterday, dropping the most in four months after the release of a softer than expected inflation report for June. After starting the day above 1.30, GBPUSD fell as much as 1.3% which is the largest intraday fall since early March, with cable now looking offered and on track for four days of declines after an impressive run of form in recent weeks. Gilts gained after the CPI release, with money markets now pricing the benchmark interest rate peaking below 6%.

The better-than-expected UK inflation release follows last week’s softer US print and has led to many investors reassessing just how much further global interest rates will need to rise. The final release of euro area CPI was also released yesterday, coming in line with expectations and remains on a downward path, triggering an ECB official to temper interest rate expectations. ECB member Klaas Knot, traditionally one of the most hawkish members of the Governing Council yesterday jumped on the dovish band wagon to say that monetary tightening beyond next week’s policy meeting is anything but guaranteed. He said, “For July I think it is a necessity, for anything beyond July it would at most be a possibility but by no means a certainty “adding “From July onwards I think we have to carefully watch what the data tells us on the distribution of risks surrounding the baseline.”

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Economic Calendar

USD - Philly Fed
USD - Existing Home Sales
AUD - Employment Change
AUD - Unemployment Rate
USD - Unemployment Claims

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
gbp/usd 1.3044 1.2869
eur/usd 1.1239 1.1175
eur/gbp 0.8701 0.8608
gbp/aud 1.9207 1.9011
gbp/nzd 2.0826 2.0621
usd/jpy 139.9900 138.7700
gbp/jpy 181.6100 179.8500
eur/cnh 2 2
Equities and Commodities
FTSE100 7,588.0000
DOW30 35,061.0000
SP500 4,566.0000

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.