Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
August 14, 2023

The U.S. dollar index is +0.30% today, starting what could be its 5th weekly consecutive gain, +3.27% since the week ending July 14th. Holding above the 200-period moving average support at 99.54 was the turning point for the dollar, and traders are now eyeing upcoming resistance at 104.50, 1.28% higher than the current 103.181. A monthly close above 103.572 could signal a new trend in dollar strength, reversing the dollar’s current downtrend, in place since October 2022.

Dollar gains are spread across the full list of major currencies, with the primary gains coming against commodity and emerging market pairs: +0.88% vs. SEK, +0.66% vs. NOK, +0.52% vs. ZAR, +0.47% vs. BRL, and +0.45% vs. KRW.

Oil prices are -1.51% in trading today at $82.02/barrel. But even with today’s decline, oil remains in a well-defined uptrend, gaining 18.59% since the June 23rd close. With that size of short-term gain, some profit taking can be expected.

U.S. Treasury yields are higher, primarily in the ‘middle’ tenors again (2-7 years). Last week’s CPI and PPI (consumer and producer inflation data) has begun to shift market expectation for additional Fed rate hikes, the probability of a November hike at the FOMC’s November 1st meeting now at 29.5%, it’s highest reading in the recent rate cycle.

Economic data for the U.S. this week includes Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing, Mortgage Applications, Housing Starts, FOMC Meeting Minutes, and Industrial Production. Canada will see CPI data tomorrow (expected to have moved higher). And Mexico releases Retail Sales figures on Friday

Economic Calendar

EUR - German WPI m/m
JPY - Prelim GDP Price Index y/y
JPY - Prelim GDP q/q

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 145.399 144.645
eur/usd 0.91754 0.9119
gbp/usd 0.79081 0.78629
aud/usd 1.54871 1.53591
usd/cad 1.34697 1.34185
eur/gbp 0.86323 0.86049
usd/mxn 17.0769 16.9505
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4493.37
NASDAQ 15131.6
DOW 35041.8
GOLD 1904.85
SILVER 22.58

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.