Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
August 17, 2023

In the FOMC’s meeting minutes from July, Fed officials noted that (1) June CPI was softer than anticipated, (2) the labor market remained very tight but that the imbalance between supply and demand was diminishing, (3) PCE remained elevated but that inflation declined in June, (4) GDP appeared to have decelerated in the second quarter, (5) recent PMI data showed a slowing pace in foreign growth in the second quarter, including fading China activity, anemic growth in Europe, weakening activity in Canada and Mexico, and the tech-sector slump weighing on Asian economies.

But despite these positive inflation results Fed officials concluded “notwithstanding recent favorable developments, inflation remained well above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-term objective and that elevated inflation was continuing to harm businesses and households—low-income families in particular.”

Traders read this as a signal of more rate hikes to come and have begun to adjust positions accordingly. U.S. Treasury prices are higher in the short tenors but lower in the 6–30-year tenors, and the 30-year reaching its highest level in 12 years at 4.409%. The U.S. Dollar Index is -0.26% with the USD declining against all G10 and most major currencies. And the probability of a November 25-basis point hike increased to 30.5%, continuing its gradual move higher.

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims were 239k, in-line with the 240k estimate.

Oil prices are +1.46% today (and positive again for the year +0.35%). Gold prices are +0.48% and silver +2.19%.

Economic Calendar

CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases
USD - Unemployment Claims
AUD - Employment Change
AUD - Unemployment Rate
USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
USD - CB Leading Index m/m
JPY - Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
USD - Mortgage Delinquencies
USD - Natural Gas Storage
EUR - Trade Balance
JPY - National Core CPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 146.556 145.619
eur/usd 1.09184 1.08614
gbp/usd 1.27875 1.27024
aud/usd 0.64505 0.63641
usd/cad 1.35522 1.34958
eur/gbp 0.8557 0.85335
usd/mxn 17.2091 17.0578
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4409.69
NASDAQ 14842.1
DOW 34834.8
GOLD 1896.03
SILVER 22.72

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Mark Allen


Mark Allen, a Senior Trader at the GPS Capital Markets Salt Lake City office, boasts nearly 30 years’ market trading experience, with a focus on foreign exchange. Having worked with GPS for the last decade, he adeptly manages market risk during New York trading hours. Prior to joining GPS, Mark co-managed a London hedge fund from San Diego and traded for a multinational bank in San Francisco.