Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
July 19, 2023

Today’s CPI data for June (consumer inflation) was better than expected in all categories. Month-over-month, year-over-year, include/exclude food an energy… all lower than forecast and lower than May, except for the MoM at 0.2% vs. 0.1%. Monthly CPI Ex Food and Energy, at 0.1576%, was the lowest reading since August of 2021. And Yearly CPI Ex Food and Energy was 4.829%, its lowest reading since November 2021.

The buzzwords ‘disinflation’ and ‘soft landing’ are making the rounds following the data release. Fed policymakers are no doubt relieved to see inflation take a measurable step back.

The U.S. Dollar is lower vs. all majors following the inflation data. The biggest declines are -1.58% vs. NOK, -1.51% vs. SEK, -1.20% vs. AUD, -1.15% vs. NZD, -0.93% vs. JPY, and -0.92% vs. CHF. The dollar index is -0.70% at 101.014, just fractions away from this year’s low at 100.82.

USD/MXN broke below weekly support near 17.0000 and is trading at a fresh multi-year low approaching 16.8000, the strongest peso since January 2016.

U.S. Treasury yields are lower in all tenors, the 3-year leading the way -0.138%. Fed Funds Futures continue to price in a 88% probability of a 25 basis-point hike at the FOMC’s meeting on July 26th.

Global equities are higher. Oil is 1.46% and gold is 1.23% at $1,955.50/oz, its highest since June 20th.

Economic Calendar

USD - CPI m/m
USD - Core CPI m/m
USD - Unemployment claim

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 140.3900 138.78
eur/usd 1.110 1.1004
gbp/usd 1.2995 1.2904
aud/usd 0.6776 0.6682
usd/can 1.3234 1.3184
Equities and Commodities
SP500 4,475.2900
NASDAQ 13,927.3900
OIL 766.0300
GOLD 1,955.5000

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.